A recent study highlights that including a citizenship question on the census significantly reduces participation among noncitizens, particularly those from Latin American countries. This research, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau in collaboration with the University of Kansas, is timely as Republican lawmakers advocate for adding such a question to the census form.
Impact on Census Participation
The study, released this summer, indicates that noncitizens—who often pay taxes but lack a Social Security number—are less likely to complete the census or provide accurate responses when a citizenship question is included. This could lead to an undercount of certain demographic groups. Conversely, U.S.-born Hispanic residents and noncitizens from non-Latin American countries are less affected by the presence of a citizenship question.
Legislative Developments
The debate over the citizenship question comes as Republican legislators push to exclude noncitizens from the census count, which is crucial for determining political representation and federal fund allocation. In May, the GOP-led House passed a bill aimed at removing noncitizens from the census tally, a measure unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate. Another bill, expected to be reviewed soon, seeks to exclude individuals in the country illegally from the count used for redistricting.
Political Reactions
During a recent House appropriations committee meeting, Democratic Rep. Grace Meng of New York criticized these proposals as “extreme,” arguing that they would undermine the accuracy of the census and divert resources from areas in need. “Ignoring noncitizens in our communities will only hinder the Census Bureau’s vital work,” Meng said.
In contrast, Republican Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia contended that including noncitizens in the count incentivizes state and local governments to attract them, potentially skewing political representation. “Including noncitizens dilutes the ability of citizens to choose their representatives,” Clyde argued.
Historical Context and Research Findings
The new study revisits findings from a 2019 trial survey conducted by the Census Bureau, which tested the impact of a citizenship question on the 2020 census. Concerns that such a question would deter Hispanics and immigrants were prominent during the Trump administration’s push to include it. Although the Supreme Court blocked the question in 2019, preliminary results from the trial survey indicated no significant overall impact on response rates. However, later analysis revealed that the question would have notably affected bilingual neighborhoods with high noncitizen and Hispanic populations.
The recent research focuses on individual households rather than census tracts, revealing that a citizenship question increases the undercount of households with noncitizens. The 2020 census data showed disparities in net undercount rates: 3.3% for Black individuals, nearly 5% for Hispanics, and 5.6% for American Indians and Native Alaskans on reservations. In contrast, non-Hispanic whites had a net overcount of 1.6%, and Asians had a net overcount of 2.6%.
Significance of the Census
The decennial census is critical for determining congressional seats, Electoral College votes, and the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in annual federal spending. The study underscores the importance of an accurate census count for fair political representation and resource allocation.
The research paper, produced by the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, reflects the researchers’ views and has not undergone the usual review process for other Census Bureau publications.
