As the world navigates a tumultuous year marked by economic instability and geopolitical strife, elections are unfolding in countries that together house nearly half of the global population. From Taiwan’s general election in January to the U.S. presidential race in November, these pivotal votes occur against a backdrop of escalating conflicts, including the Ukraine war, Middle Eastern unrest, and intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions.
Economic Strain Influences Electoral Outcomes
Rising living costs are shaping electoral landscapes worldwide. From skyrocketing food prices in Indonesia to soaring fuel bills in Europe, the strain on household budgets is palpable. Incumbent leaders across the globe are facing backlash for economic conditions, reflecting in polling trends.
In India, concerns over living costs have contributed to a decline in support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party. Similarly, mainstream parties in Europe and the UK’s ruling Conservatives have suffered electoral setbacks. In South Africa, dissatisfaction over economic conditions and unemployment led to the ANC losing its majority, while Ghana’s upcoming December vote will be influenced by worsening poverty.
In the U.S., polling suggests President Joe Biden faces criticism over his handling of living standards, despite strong economic indicators. In contrast, Mexico’s MORENA party found success by providing significant subsidies to low-income voters.
Climate Action Takes a Backseat
With economic concerns dominating voter priorities, climate change action has often been sidelined in election campaigns. Despite record-breaking global temperatures and increasing death tolls from extreme weather, ambitious climate policies are facing resistance.
European voters still support climate action, but the debate has shifted to the economic impact of green policies. The EU elections saw the Green party lose ground, while the UK’s Labour party dropped a significant green investment pledge. In the U.S., Donald Trump’s campaign promotes continued fossil fuel use, casting doubt on the future of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) green subsidies.
Rise of Far-Right Movements
Economic distress has fueled the rise of far-right movements in Western nations. Anti-immigration and nationalist rhetoric are gaining traction, as seen in Portugal, where the Chega party increased its parliamentary seats. Across Europe, far-right parties made gains in the European Parliament elections, and France’s National Rally emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament.
In Britain, the anti-immigrant Reform Party garnered over four million votes, contributing to the Conservatives’ electoral defeat. Austria’s upcoming September 29 election is expected to highlight the far-right Freedom Party’s growing influence. In the U.S., Trump’s focus on immigration remains a central campaign issue, reflecting broader shifts in Western political dynamics.
Debt and Election Promises
The prevalent economic hardship has led many politicians to promise substantial spending and tax cuts, risking further increases in global debt. Credit rating agencies warn that debt levels in major economies, including the U.S. and France, are unlikely to decrease amid ongoing electoral cycles.
Trump has pledged to maintain broad tax cuts and potentially introduce further reductions, while Biden proposes raising taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses to support low- and middle-income Americans. The U.S. federal debt currently exceeds $34 trillion, raising concerns about financial stability and the effectiveness of inflation control measures.
Defence and Security Priorities
Geopolitical tensions are influencing electoral debates, especially in regions near conflict zones. Finland’s election focused on NATO participation and nuclear arms transit, while Lithuania’s election emphasized defense spending amid concerns over Russia. Taiwan’s elections centered on strategies to counter China’s influence, with the ruling DPP securing a third term.
In the U.S., Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza conflict has become a point of contention among Democratic voters, contrasting with Trump’s promises to reassess NATO and resolve the Ukraine conflict. These differing stances highlight the impact of global security issues on domestic politics.
Democracy Under Scrutiny
Pro-democracy advocates are raising alarms about the fairness of elections in several countries, including Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, Iran, and Russia. Despite setbacks, there are positive signs, such as India’s democratic resilience and Senegal’s peaceful power transition.
However, the U.S. election remains a focal point of concern. Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting election results or rule out potential violence presents a significant threat to democratic norms. As Steven Levitsky from Harvard University noted, the integrity of democracy hinges on adherence to democratic rules by all parties.
